The markets gapped down this morning and spent much of the day recovering. Our support/resistance lines drawn in at 107.2 and 108 on SPY worked very nicely today. Ultimately, we have an inside trading day on SPY and a relatively weak breakout of the bull flag formation on the daily chart. The VIX did drop today which adds some validity to the rally. The TRIN was bearish while the TRIN/Q read bullish. The TICK and TICK/Q both corroborated today’s action. Note the Russell 2000 (IWM) showed relative strength today.
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Happy Trading,
Jason
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The broad market indexes finished the day with mixed results. The S&P 500 (SPY), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), and Nasdaq (QQQQ) all finished lower by about .2%. The Financials (XLF) showed significant relative strength, closing up 1%. The Russell 2000 (IWM) finished fractionally higher to flat.
The market internals gave mixed readings, which is expected on a sideways day. The TRIN was bearish today. The TRIN/Q was mostly bullish. The TICK and TICK/Q corroborated the intraday action. Finally, the VIX dropped nearly 3%, but is holding up over 25.
On the daily chart of SPY we have a lower high and a lower low. Today’s candle is also a doji. The upper shaddow of today’s candle hit resistance at the upper trendline of the down channel. From here I expect a lower swing low, but none of the signals I am seeing are terribly decisive. Volume was also relatively normal today.
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Happy Trading,
Jason
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Stocks rallied across the board today. The VIX only dropped about 2%, while the major indexes rose by 1% or more. I would have liked to see the VIX down at least 3% today in order to confirm the move in the broad market. The TRIN and TRIN/Q were both in bullish territory (under .8), indicating that more volume was flowing into stocks on the rise rather than stocks on the decline. The TICK and TICK/Q, though mostly used by day traders, corroborated the intraday actions nicely.
The S&P 500 (SPY) now has a confirmed swing low in place and a potential reversal pattern setting up on the daily chart. Today’s candle is a doji at the top of an up leg which could be a reversal pending a close below today’s lows at the end of tomorrow’s trading session. The upper shadow of today’s candle tagged 108 and the top of the downward channel which acted as strong resistance, sending prices back down. In order to continue being bullish, SPY needs to break above the upper line of the channel and the 108 mark. Otherwise, we may see a lower swing high and continuation to the downside.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets sold off on light volume today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), Russell 2000 (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Nasdaq (QQQQ) all showed relative weakness to the S&P 500 (SPY) today. The VIX only rose 1.5%, which is not really enough to confirm the move lower. The TRIN and TRIN/Q both finished the day in bearish territory, indicating more volume flowing into stocks on the decline than stocks on the rise. That is a bearish sign. The TICK and TICK/Q were fairly neutral with some bearish bias, especially into the close.
On the daily chart of SPY we made a higher high and a higher low today, which is technically bullish, but in reality, today’s move was a little more bearish than bullish. We really need to see a close higher than today’s highs in order to mark a swing low here.
There are a bunch of potentially market moving earnings reports coming out before tomorrow’s trading session, so keep your eye out for any big surprises there. There are also some minor economic reports coming out tomorrow, but they are not heavy hitters. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are going to be big days in terms of economic reports that have the potential to really move the markets. Keep your eye on the economic calender as well as earnings dates for particular stocks you might be trading/watching.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets were down hard today, but reversed in the last hour and rallied harder into the close. Volume stepped up and confirmed the move as well; 100 million more shares of SPY traded today than yesterday. The VIX, TRIN, TRIN/Q, TICK, and TICK/Q all gave strong confirmation of a reversal here. On the daily chart of SPY, we have a thrusting hammer on strong volume after a down leg. I am looking for a small bounce here. If we get a lower swing high, then the bear trend will be strengthened.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets popped today, putting a temporary end to the recent sell off. All of the major indexes have put in a swing low now, however, the Nasdaq (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are relatively weak to the S&P 500 (SPY), Financials (XLF), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) on the daily time frame. If the bulls want any hope of continuing the March 2009 rally past March 2010, the next swing high better not be lower than the last. That would be bearish to see and would provide more confirmation for the markets rolling over here.
The dollar (UUP) appeared to be breaking above a resistance line as well as the 200 day moving average on Friday, but has pulled back under the resistance this week, therefore registering it a failed break out. Gold (GLD) has marked an equal swing low to the last swing low and may form a double bottom formation here. It is not a confirmed double bottom yet, on gold, and there is a bit of resistance to fight through on the upside. If gold continues to rise and the dollar continues to drop, that will help push stocks higher.
The VIX dropped 5% today, which is more than enough to confirm the 1% pop in the general markets. The TRIN and TRIN/Q were both very bullish today. The TICK and TICK/Q corroborated the move nicely.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately! Also, be sure to check earnings dates for stocks you are trading and/or watching. It is prudent not to hold over earnings. Finally, it is a good idea to regularly check the Bloomberg Economic Calendar and sites like Yahoo finance so that you know the major headlines that may move the markets.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The major indexes rose more than 1% today. Volume was average, which certainly takes away from the move. The VIX dropped more than 8% today, which is pretty significant. A 3-4% drop in the VIX would have been enough confirmation for today. The TRIN was certainly bullish and the TRIN/Q was almost overly bullish, hovering around .4 all day. The TICK and TICK/Q corroborated the sideways chop that we saw for most of the session.
Gold (GLD) spiked up 2.26% today which is good for the markets. Also, the dollar (UUP) dropped .43% and that also helped push stocks higher today.
The S&P 500 (SPY) could be marking a swing low here, but it is certainly not confirmed yet. A break above 110 would be strong confirmation of a swing low here. Otherwise, the daily chart is still showing the makings of a weak low base consolidation.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets are looking extremely bearish. The most important news today is the fact that GDP and Consumer Sentiment reports both came out better than expected, and the markets sold off. Remember, how the market reacts to the news is more important than the news itself. If you will recall, back in March and April of 2009, the market responded to negative news with buying pressure. Right now, the markets are responding to positive news with selling pressure.
The S&P 500 (SPY) broke down out of a rising wedge on the daily chart and formed a high base. Today (and yesterday), SPY broke down out of the high base formation. All of this selling pressure occurred with increasing volume. That is significant confirmation of the bearish formations. Gold (GLD) has put in a short term top and the dollar (UUP) just broke out of a falling wedge and today broke above the 200 day moving average. Recently, the correlation has been that when the markets are up, gold is up and the dollar is down. These are all indicating bearish activity and probably more selling pressure to come.
The Nasdaq (QQQQ) was the leader to the downside today, followed by the Russell 2000 (IWM). These are leading indexes and they are adding to the selling pressure. The VIX popped about 3.75% today and tested the 25 mark. The TRIN, TRIN/Q, TICK, and TICK/Q each corroborated the moves in their respective indexes nicely today.
This is the worst pull back we have seen in a very long time. Unlike the head and shoulders break down we saw in July 2009, this sell off is being confirmed by extreme increases in volume. This is serious folks. I always say it, but I hope my repetition has not detracted from its value… Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately! Capital preservation is a traders number one priority.
Have a great weekend. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com!
Happy Trading,
Jason
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