The markets are chopping sideways today. It is tough to even call this consolidation action on the daily charts because it is so choppy and full of gaps. The broader market indexes are all fractionally lower today. The VIX, TICK, and TRIN are giving mixed readings, which is expected on a sideways day. The dollar is barely moving. On SPY, 110 and 111 are proving to be significant support and resistance points.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Big up move in the markets today. The dollar is showing significant weakness, down .75%. The weakness in the dollar is giving equities support to the upside. Also, gold is a big beneficiary of a weak dollar (GLD up 1.3%). The Financials (XLF, RIFIN, BANK) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are showing relative strength today which supports today’s move higher. The VIX is down almost 5%. The TICK is corroborating the pop up this morning as well as the pull back we are seeing intraday. The TRIN has been bullish all day, hanging out well under the .8 mark.
SPY gapped up above resistance at 110 and 110.35, broke out above resistance at 111 and tested the highs for the year around the 111.6 area. Now SPY has pulled back and is testing support at the 111 mark. It will be important to see how these broken resistance lines hold as support.
This market is VERY choppy and difficult to trade. I should have closed my positions going into the week end, but I did not. That came back to hurt me this morning when I had to close most of my bear positions for a loss. I will probably sit out for the rest of the week and see what the markets do. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. I may not be able to do the Post Market Analysis tonight. I am on break and have sporadic plans throughout the week. I will do my best to update Swing-High as often as I can.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets are still in a consolidation phase so far today. The S&P (SPY) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) are relatively neutral. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are showing relative weakness today. The financials (XLF, RIFIN, BANK) are relatively strong today as a whole.
Intraday, SPY tested support at 111, but is holding above that support right now. Expect major resistance at 111.69 to the upside. Also anticipate fining support at 111 and 110.3 with the next major support area at 110.
I did not make any trades today as I am waiting for this consolidation phase to resolve in one direction or the other. Also, I will not be making the Post Market Analysis tonight because I will be traveling home for Thanksgiving break.
I just found out that I placed second in the Smeal Trading Competition that I participated in last Thursday. That means I will be going to Toronto to compete on behalf of Penn State. I’m pretty excited about that… not gonna lie. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Three economic reports came out this morning and so far, Housing Starts is the most bearish of the reports. The other reports came in more or less in line with expectations. Pre-Market, stocks are selling off a little bit. If stocks were to open right now, we would see a slight gap down or a neutral open across the board. Since burning my video, the Dollar has sold off and stocks popped up.
Today could very well be another sideways trading day. Look for SPY to hold up in its high base formation. If it breaks out to the upside, that will be bullish, but weaker than if it consolidated first. If SPY breaks down, we will mark a swing high here. Check back later today for your Halftime Report. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Big move up in the broader markets today. SPY gapped up and broke out above major resistance to put in new highs for 2009. DIA and QQQQ also put in new highs for the year today. The IWM and XLF are still lagging on the daily time frame as they are not even close to their highs for the year. The TICK and TRIN were very bullish today with a notable spike to the bearish side around 2:40 when Meredith Whitney came out and made some negative comments about financials. The VIX finished down by about 2%. If traders were more convinced by this rally, the VIX would have been down at least 4%.
From here I am looking for continuation to the upside, a consolidation pattern, or a reversal pattern. I know that covers most possibilities, but I am personally just waiting for the reversal pattern that signals a sell on the broader indexes. At that point, I will take advantage of the next down leg and sell out of all bearish positions. I need to re-think my strategy and I do not want to continue playing with leveraged ETFs much longer. I am going back to picking individual stocks.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Stocks are up big today on the back of weaker than expected Retail Sales numbers, lower than expected Empire State Manufacturing Survey data, and a decline in Business Inventories. Despite all the mediocre news, stocks are rallying across the board so far today. Ben Bernanke is speaking right now, so be careful (markets are beginning to pull back).
SPY is breaking out of a high base formation so far today on the daily chart. The TICK and TRIN are almost overly bullish, but showing strength nonetheless. The VIX, however, is only down about 1.5% today. Normally, the VIX should move 3x the inverse of the markets in order to confirm the move, but we are not seeing that so far today. All of the broader market indexes are participating in the rally today. The dollar (DXY, UUP) is down today, which is providing for support to the upside in equities. Also, it is interesting to note that bonds are increasing today (take a look at TLT). Bonds are normally a flight-to-safety type investment.
As for my personal trading account, I am setting up to go short again on the next down leg, so at the next reversal pattern I will add to short positions. I personally feel the need to re-evaluate my strategy. Expect a personal reflection post next week.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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This week was bullish overall, but volume was very light. The major indexes appear to be putting in a swing high at their respective levels. The financials and Russell 2000 are showing significant relative weakness on multiple time frames. This is important, because the markets cannot continue much higher without support from the Russell stocks and especially the financials.
Next week will be very important in determining the direction of the markets. If stocks break down next week, then things could start setting up for the downside. Otherwise, the medium term trend is bullish and the long term trend may start healing itself if the markets remain bullish to close out the month of November. However, do expect a down leg here as we may be putting in swing highs across the board. It is impossible to tell where the next swing low will be, or even if this is a swing high (not yet confirmed until this down leg is confirmed). It is important to trade based on what is happening and want what the market wants. Keep an eye on the significant support and resistance lines and how the market reacts to them.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Some scary action in the markets today if you’re a bear. We had a FOBO (Fake Out Break Out) to the downside this morning on worse than expected economic reports. International Trade and Consumer Sentiment disappointed analysts. We broke down on SPY and tagged yesterday’s low. SPY formed a Tweezers Bottom and shot north from there. The Financials (XLF) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are showing relative weakness still, which provides little faith for this intraday rally. It looks like the Financials and Russell 2000 will be the indexes that lead the markets lower from here.
I expect SPY to close within the 109 to 110 range today. A 50% retracement of yesterday’s sell off is not surprising. Some would even call that a sympathy bounce. If SPY closes above 110, that would be very bullish going into Monday. Below 109 would be bearish as it is continuation to the downside and would confirm the beginning of a down leg.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. Check back this weekend for your Weekend Review.
Happy Trading,
Jason
P.S. Sorry for not doing the Post Market Analysis yesterday. I was competing in a trading competition through the Smeal College of Business here at Penn State. I am not sure how I did yet, but I will let you know when I find out.
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