Hello Traders! I am glad to be back after months of sitting on my hands. I am still sitting on them, but I am here to review the markets while I wait. While the market figures out which direction it wants to go, I be here trying to predict its decision. Stay with me… things could get very interesting again in the markets, perhaps soon.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets finished flat today after a relatively range bound trading session. The Financials (XLF) were the big winners today, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) also showed relative strength, which is a bullish sign. The market internals (TICK, TRIN, and VIX) all corroborated the indecisive action in stocks today.
SPY closed at support at the 50 day moving average and the 111 mark. 111.5 has proven to be significant resistance as SPY has been unable to break above it the past two sessions. On the daily chart of SPY we can see a bull flag break out and a solid run, but it was on low volume and appears to be slowing down now. Either way, it is extended at this point and I do not see a reason to enter long here. I will wait for a pull back, consolidation, or some other pattern to set up before picking up new positions.
It looks like my bullish call on UPRO on February 5 was dead right. If I did not get stopped out, I would have caught a healthy 17 point move. Right now am I analyzing why I got stopped out where I did and re-thinking the appropriateness of the stop loss I chose.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Bullish move in the markets today. The VIX did not confirm very well, but the TRIN and TRIN/Q were very strong. Volume was also light today. Commodities and earnings pushed stocks higher, while the dollar dropped.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! I am sorry for the rushed post, but I have a tight schedule right now. Please be patient as next Wednesday might be the next post. I am going to Toronto this weekend to compete in the 2010 Rotman International Trading Competition for Penn State. As soon as I get home I have 4 tests to make up, so I will be very busy this week. Thank you for understanding… Stay tuned!
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets gapped down this morning and spent much of the day recovering. Our support/resistance lines drawn in at 107.2 and 108 on SPY worked very nicely today. Ultimately, we have an inside trading day on SPY and a relatively weak breakout of the bull flag formation on the daily chart. The VIX did drop today which adds some validity to the rally. The TRIN was bearish while the TRIN/Q read bullish. The TICK and TICK/Q both corroborated today’s action. Note the Russell 2000 (IWM) showed relative strength today.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Stocks are rising today on better news out of Greece. Most of the major indexes are up about 1% so far. The VIX is down over 4.5%. The TRIN is neutral, which means stocks can break in either direction with relative ease. The TICK is bullish.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets sold off HUGE today, closing on the lows. Volume was very strong, which adds serious conviction to the sell off. The TRIN was almost overly bearish, but the TRIN/Q gave a healthy bearish reading. The VIX popped nearly 21% today, closing well above 25. Gold (GLD) sold off about 4% and the dollar rose .65%.
The S&P 500 (SPY) broke down below key support at 109, 108, and 107.2… in one swift move. If SPY stays under 107.2, it’s game on for the bears. The next key support is going to be 105 and 103.7. There is a lot of room to the downside now and a lot of resistance to fight through on the way back up.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. As a trader, you should be able to make money in either direction. Therefore, a strong sell off like this should not scare you (at least on a trading level); instead, you should be happy to see so much movement. If you do not know how to short or are uncomfortable shorting, then move into cash or buy some short term government securities. Please do not hold a loser. Right now, most stocks are looking like losers.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets are looking extremely bearish. The most important news today is the fact that GDP and Consumer Sentiment reports both came out better than expected, and the markets sold off. Remember, how the market reacts to the news is more important than the news itself. If you will recall, back in March and April of 2009, the market responded to negative news with buying pressure. Right now, the markets are responding to positive news with selling pressure.
The S&P 500 (SPY) broke down out of a rising wedge on the daily chart and formed a high base. Today (and yesterday), SPY broke down out of the high base formation. All of this selling pressure occurred with increasing volume. That is significant confirmation of the bearish formations. Gold (GLD) has put in a short term top and the dollar (UUP) just broke out of a falling wedge and today broke above the 200 day moving average. Recently, the correlation has been that when the markets are up, gold is up and the dollar is down. These are all indicating bearish activity and probably more selling pressure to come.
The Nasdaq (QQQQ) was the leader to the downside today, followed by the Russell 2000 (IWM). These are leading indexes and they are adding to the selling pressure. The VIX popped about 3.75% today and tested the 25 mark. The TRIN, TRIN/Q, TICK, and TICK/Q each corroborated the moves in their respective indexes nicely today.
This is the worst pull back we have seen in a very long time. Unlike the head and shoulders break down we saw in July 2009, this sell off is being confirmed by extreme increases in volume. This is serious folks. I always say it, but I hope my repetition has not detracted from its value… Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately! Capital preservation is a traders number one priority.
Have a great weekend. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com!
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Interesting day in the markets as most major indexes were up about .5% mid-day, but all of them pulled back and finished in the red. The Financials (XLF) and Russell 2000 (IWM) were relative weak today. The VIX dropped about 3.5%. The TRIN, TICK, and TICK/Q all corroborated today’s action pretty well. However, the TRIN/Q stayed bullish all day. SPY is still in the process of consolidating at these levels. I would like to see a low base or a lower swing high going forward to support the bear case.
The FOMC meeting at 2:15 will probably be the highlight of the trading day tomorrow. Also watch the New Home Sales and EIA Petroleum Status Reports. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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