The markets sold off on light volume today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), Russell 2000 (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Nasdaq (QQQQ) all showed relative weakness to the S&P 500 (SPY) today. The VIX only rose 1.5%, which is not really enough to confirm the move lower. The TRIN and TRIN/Q both finished the day in bearish territory, indicating more volume flowing into stocks on the decline than stocks on the rise. That is a bearish sign. The TICK and TICK/Q were fairly neutral with some bearish bias, especially into the close.
On the daily chart of SPY we made a higher high and a higher low today, which is technically bullish, but in reality, today’s move was a little more bearish than bullish. We really need to see a close higher than today’s highs in order to mark a swing low here.
There are a bunch of potentially market moving earnings reports coming out before tomorrow’s trading session, so keep your eye out for any big surprises there. There are also some minor economic reports coming out tomorrow, but they are not heavy hitters. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are going to be big days in terms of economic reports that have the potential to really move the markets. Keep your eye on the economic calender as well as earnings dates for particular stocks you might be trading/watching.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets look incredibly bearish today. The broader market indexes are all down 2% or more. Volume is strong so far for the day. The TRIN and TRIN/Q are both bearish. The VIX is incredibly bearish, up about 17%! Gold (GLD) is down 4% and the dollar (UUP) is up .65%. Across the board, stocks are selling off with serious conviction from the internal indicators.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy trading,
Jason
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A lot of indecision and divergences in the markets today. The S&P 500 (SPY) had an inside trading day, showing no directional movement on the daily chart. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) was relatively strong, closing up .5% while the other indexes sold off .5%-1%. Gold (GLD) pulled back slightly and the dollar (UUP) broke above resistance at the 200 day moving average. The VIX popped ever so slightly, up .5%. The TRIN was very bearish today while the TRIN/Q remained bullish.
Based on earnings alone (so far they have been good after hours), I would expect the markets to trade higher tomorrow. However, things can turn on a dime as it is earnings season. Also, we have Jobless Claims and Productivity & Costs numbers coming out pre-market tomorrow. Always check earnings dates for stocks you are watching and/or trading. It is not prudent to hold positions or trade into earnings. Also, it is important to always define your risk and trade with a stop loss.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com!
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The major indexes rose more than 1% today. Volume was average, which certainly takes away from the move. The VIX dropped more than 8% today, which is pretty significant. A 3-4% drop in the VIX would have been enough confirmation for today. The TRIN was certainly bullish and the TRIN/Q was almost overly bullish, hovering around .4 all day. The TICK and TICK/Q corroborated the sideways chop that we saw for most of the session.
Gold (GLD) spiked up 2.26% today which is good for the markets. Also, the dollar (UUP) dropped .43% and that also helped push stocks higher today.
The S&P 500 (SPY) could be marking a swing low here, but it is certainly not confirmed yet. A break above 110 would be strong confirmation of a swing low here. Otherwise, the daily chart is still showing the makings of a weak low base consolidation.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets are looking extremely bearish. The most important news today is the fact that GDP and Consumer Sentiment reports both came out better than expected, and the markets sold off. Remember, how the market reacts to the news is more important than the news itself. If you will recall, back in March and April of 2009, the market responded to negative news with buying pressure. Right now, the markets are responding to positive news with selling pressure.
The S&P 500 (SPY) broke down out of a rising wedge on the daily chart and formed a high base. Today (and yesterday), SPY broke down out of the high base formation. All of this selling pressure occurred with increasing volume. That is significant confirmation of the bearish formations. Gold (GLD) has put in a short term top and the dollar (UUP) just broke out of a falling wedge and today broke above the 200 day moving average. Recently, the correlation has been that when the markets are up, gold is up and the dollar is down. These are all indicating bearish activity and probably more selling pressure to come.
The Nasdaq (QQQQ) was the leader to the downside today, followed by the Russell 2000 (IWM). These are leading indexes and they are adding to the selling pressure. The VIX popped about 3.75% today and tested the 25 mark. The TRIN, TRIN/Q, TICK, and TICK/Q each corroborated the moves in their respective indexes nicely today.
This is the worst pull back we have seen in a very long time. Unlike the head and shoulders break down we saw in July 2009, this sell off is being confirmed by extreme increases in volume. This is serious folks. I always say it, but I hope my repetition has not detracted from its value… Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately! Capital preservation is a traders number one priority.
Have a great weekend. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com!
Happy Trading,
Jason
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