The markets rallied hard today on good Jobless Claims data and other positive Economic Reports. The TICK was bullish most of the day. The TRIN was not corroborating the move, but fell in line with the bullish sentiment at the end of the session. The VIX bled out nicely, down 8.3%.
The markets should remain bullish for this up leg. We can mark a higher swing low at the $103.5 area on SPY. Expect major resistance and most likely a lower swing high at the 108 area on SPY. The IWM is back above the confirmation line of the double top formation. I need to see a lower swing high on IWM in order to remain bearish on it.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
~Jason
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Things are eerily calm right now after a move higher in the broader market indexes. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve and the FOMC Minutes to be released at 2:15. This will most likely be a big market moving report. Make sure to minimize your risk in either direction by lightening up on positions or hedging your positions (I will also include some basic hedging strategies in the education page of Swing-High.com when it is released).
Trade smart everybody. Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com!
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The markets showed strength this morning, but pulled back nicely from the early highs of the session. The Russells (IWM) and Nasdaq (QQQQ) showed relative weakness today. The VIX behaved as expected and finished with a slight pull back. The TICK and the TRIN were neutral/mixed today. All things considered, today’s action was unconvincing and supportive of the bear case. It is very tough to gauge where the market wants to go from here. I would like to see a consolidation here or at least a better pattern set up before I take any major positions.
Looks like we will just have to wait and see, but the markets still look like they want to go lower from here. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. Capital preservation comes before profits.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Hello Traders,
The markets are higher today on news reports. CIT Group (CIT) filed for bankruptcy over the weekend, which had the potential to act as a Lehman Brothers type catalyst leading to a “Black Monday”-type drop in the markets. However, Ford (F) beat earnings expectations by posting a $1 billion profit and providing positive guidance. Keep in mind, much of Ford’s earnings can be attributed to Cash for Clunkers, so weigh that with a grain of salt. ISM Manufacturing Index data came out better than expected this morning as well. Pending Home Sales also beat expectations. That makes it three to one for news supporting the bull side today.
The VIX has a healthy pullback in the making today at about -7%. The VIX is finding support at the 50% Fibonacci Retracement Line. The TICK is surprisingly neutral and the TRIN is reading slightly bearish. With the divergent action in the market internals, this pop today looks like a sympathy bounce.
The SPY is finding resistance at the 50% Fib line of a recent sell off which also happens to be the round number of 105 and the bottom of Thursday’s candle. The Russells (IWM) are still in a confirmed double top. The Financials (XLF) are relatively strong today, which might be attributed to CIT Group’s (CIT) bankruptcy. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) and Russells (IWM) are showing relative weakness intraday.
In general, I am picking up short positions and will continue to do so if the markets stay bullish. Today’s action is looking a lot like a sympathy bounce (much like last Thursday). I plan to play the downside with a basket of inverse ETFs (most likely: TZA, SPXU, FAZ, EDZ).
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. Check back this evening for your Post Market Analysis.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Strong up move in the broader markets today. Most indexes finished up over 2%. The VIX dropped well over 11% today and the TICK and TRIN corroborated bullish movement all day. With this up move (higher high and higher low on the daily chart of SPY) I will mark a swing low here. From here we should see a small up leg. However, we now have a lot of overhead resistance to fight through. Expect major resistance on SPY at the $107.30 area. I will not trade heavily in either direction and whatever trades I do make will be day trades until we can get a more definitive trend.
This morning, a couple major economic reports (GDP and Jobless Claims) beat estimates. Keep in mind that much of the GDP increase can be attributed to government involvement and that detracts from the significance of that GDP number. Keep an eye on the economic reports due tomorrow morning. The big ones are Consumer Sentiment and Personal Income and Outlays. Also due tomorrow morning are the Employee Cost Index and the Chicago PMI.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage risk appropriately. Trade carefully over the next few days. There is a plethora of uncertainty in the markets right now, in either direction.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets are higher today which comes as no surprise after the good economic reports this morning and the short term over-sold nature. This morning, Jobless Claims and GDP reports beat expectations and certainly acted as a catalyst sending us higher today. The VIX is bleeding out nicely as fear is leaving the market today. The TICK and TRIN are obviously bullish.
So is this a sympathy bounce or a swing low? There is no confirmation either way at this point in time, but confirmation may come tomorrow or early next week.
Last night I dumped SPXU for a healthy profit on the day (in at $44.02 out at $46.22 for a 5%+ gain). I thought it would be prudent not to hold that position over such big economic news. I was proven right today and my “insurance” paid well. This morning I traded TNA long from $38.27. I was stopped out at $38.75 on a healthy bull pull back which leads me to believe that my stop may have been a bit too tight. The reasons behind my stop decision are under consideration.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade for a stop loss (even if you get stopped out) and manage your risk appropriately. Check back this evening for your post market analysis.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets sold off hard today with all sorts of conviction. Important things to note are the increasing volume across the board on this down leg, the VIX is approaching 30 and fast, and the relative weakness in the major leading indexes (QQQQ, XLF, IWM); do not discount the confirmed double top formation on the Russells (IWM). All of the major indexes are breaking down out of rising wedges or channels…
Things are looking extremely bearish going into tomorrow’s trading session. Keep an eye on the GDP and Jobless Claims reports that are due at 8:30 tomorrow morning. These are major economic reports (especially GDP) and can act as a catalyst in continuing the downside move or can cause this sell off to slam on the breaks and reverse hard. It is pretty much do or die time for the bulls. Either we get a swing low here, which still would not be very bullish because of all the deterioration we have seen in the technicals during this sell off, or it is game on for the bears.
Things are getting ugly out there once more. At this point in the markets it would be prudent and safe to wait a few more days for conviction to the downside before going all out short. Keep your heads down traders. Remember to always always always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately!
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Let’s continue to make some money.
~ Jason
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Big drop in the markets today, perpetuated by poor home sales data.
We are seeing very nice downward action in the indexes today. SPY is breaking down out of a huge rising wedge formation which is very bearish. Financials (XLF), Russells (IWM), and the Nasdaq (QQQQ),all considered leading indexes to the S&P (SPY), are showing big time relative weakness today. The Dow (DIA) is relatively strong, but it’s 4 to 1 for the bears. The VIX, TICK, and TRIN are all confirming the move to the downside. I am net short this market and will continue to ride it down as long as it stays bearish.
One thing I did not have time to mention in my video was my trade today. I entered SPXU pre-market at 44.02. I am sitting on a nice gain; SPXU just made a new high as I was writing this.
Trade smart everybody and I will talk to you after the close!
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com!
~Jason
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