The markets finished up big today after a nice gap up and continuation today. Volume was light and the VIX only dropped 2x the move up in the broader market. I am hesitant to go long here in the face of the 110 mark on SPY. However, the trend can heal itself and become more bullish if we break above the UPPER line of our big orange rising wedge with confirming volume.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Talk to you tomorrow,
Jason
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The markets gapped up pretty big today on positive statements from the G-20 meeting. The world governments made a pledge to aid economies, whatever that means. I guess they are promising to print more money… fantastic.
Anyway, all the major indexes (SPY, DIA, QQQQ, and IWM) are up about 1.5% today and the Financials (XLF) are up 2.5%. The markets gapped up across the board and made practically no attempt to fill the gaps, which is bullish. The TICK is obviously bullish. The TRIN is a little overly-bullish under 0.4. The VIX is down almost 3% which is a little bit of a red flag. The VIX should be down much more on such a bullish day (in terms of price action at least), but the fact that the VIX is not down more says to me that options traders do not believe in this up move completely.
Unless we somehow close in negative territory on SPY today, the Head and Shoulders formation I was looking for will not be a possibility any more. SPY gapped above 108 which should now act as support and is finding some resistance here at 109. On a break above 109, expect a run to 110 which should prove to be major resistance. The SPY could turn around at 110 and make the beginnings of a Double Top formation. That would be incredibly bearish. The IWM double top will remain confirmed, though weakened, if the index makes a lower swing high here. The IWM could even make a Triple Top formation in the near future.
Check back this evening for your Post Market Analysis. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets rallied hard today on good Jobless Claims data and other positive Economic Reports. The TICK was bullish most of the day. The TRIN was not corroborating the move, but fell in line with the bullish sentiment at the end of the session. The VIX bled out nicely, down 8.3%.
The markets should remain bullish for this up leg. We can mark a higher swing low at the $103.5 area on SPY. Expect major resistance and most likely a lower swing high at the 108 area on SPY. The IWM is back above the confirmation line of the double top formation. I need to see a lower swing high on IWM in order to remain bearish on it.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
~Jason
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The markets are up nicely today. Jobless Claims came in better than expected and the other Economic Reports were bullish. The Financials are the only significant laggard today. The TICK and TRIN are divergent in that the TICK is corroborating the broader market moves while the TRIN is not. The VIX is bleeding out nicely, so the tie breaker goes in the bulls favor.
I made one trade today in FAS which I highlight in my video. I probably would have been better in TNA when it comes to trading the ETFs.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. Check back this evening for your Post Market Analysis.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets gapped up this morning and traded lightly leading up to the FOMC Statement at 2:15 pm. After the FOMC statement volume sky rocketed and prices chopped around big time. Ultimately we sold off into the close. SPY filled its gap in the last ten minutes of trading. The Russell 2000 (IWM) and Financials (XLF) were super weak compared to the other indexes. That is important to note as a bearish indicator leading into tomorrow. Also, the VIX popped up nicely at the close and the TRIN spiked as well, confirming the late day sell off.
Today I attempted to trade FAS long, but was stopped out at break even. Not complaining because FAS continued to sell off 3 points past my stop/entry. I am hedged with small bear positions in EDZ, TZA, and FAZ to counter my bullish positions.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. Thinks look ominous going into tomorrow, so watch that Jobless Claims report like a hawk!
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Things are eerily calm right now after a move higher in the broader market indexes. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve and the FOMC Minutes to be released at 2:15. This will most likely be a big market moving report. Make sure to minimize your risk in either direction by lightening up on positions or hedging your positions (I will also include some basic hedging strategies in the education page of Swing-High.com when it is released).
Trade smart everybody. Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com!
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Choppy day in the markets today. The S&P (SPY) finished up about 0.25%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) finished down by about 0.2%. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) finished up 0.4%. The Russel 2000 (IWM) lead the markets big time, finishing up 1.5%. Finally, the Financials (XLF) closed up 0.25%. Interesting divergence among the broader indexes. The market is apparently indecisive on which direction to go next. Expect the next major areas of support and resistance on SPY to be 102 and 108. I will also be watching to see how SPY reacts to the resistance at the 50 day moving average.
The SPY had an inside trading day today (did not make a higher high or lower low). Everything about the neutral sideways action screams consolidation at this level, which can be expected after the recent moves. Consolidation is not a bad thing. In fact, it is healthy and welcomed by most traders as it provides confirmations of certain moves as well as set ups for other moves. The current consolidation on SPY could be a swing low, or a bearish pennant. Of course we will have to play it as we see it. Do not be early though. It is crucial to wait for confirmation of the formation you are trading. Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com!
Talk to you tomorrow,
Jason
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The markets are chopping sideways for the most part today, so far forming an doji on the daily candle. The Financials (XLF), Dow (DIA) and Nasdaq (QQQQ) are showing relative weakness to the S&P 500 index (SPY) today. The VIX is up more than 1% and is above 30. The TICK and TRIN are both neutral. Price action in the broader market indexes seems to be in a consolidation phase today, which is a healthy thing to see after such indecisive and sporadic movements we have seen lately.
A Bearish Pennant patter is forming on the SPY 15 minute chart which could break to the down side. From there, expect to see support at 102. If the SPY puts in a swing low at 102 and re-tests the 108 area, that could be the start of a Head and Shoulders formation, which would be extremely bearish. We will have to trade it as we see it.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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