The broader market indexes are chopping sideways today, which does not come as too much of a surprise. To be honest, there is nothing too special to report in regards to the major indexes so far today.
Check back this evening for your Post Market Analysis. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Big move up in the broader markets today. SPY gapped up and broke out above major resistance to put in new highs for 2009. DIA and QQQQ also put in new highs for the year today. The IWM and XLF are still lagging on the daily time frame as they are not even close to their highs for the year. The TICK and TRIN were very bullish today with a notable spike to the bearish side around 2:40 when Meredith Whitney came out and made some negative comments about financials. The VIX finished down by about 2%. If traders were more convinced by this rally, the VIX would have been down at least 4%.
From here I am looking for continuation to the upside, a consolidation pattern, or a reversal pattern. I know that covers most possibilities, but I am personally just waiting for the reversal pattern that signals a sell on the broader indexes. At that point, I will take advantage of the next down leg and sell out of all bearish positions. I need to re-think my strategy and I do not want to continue playing with leveraged ETFs much longer. I am going back to picking individual stocks.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Stocks are up big today on the back of weaker than expected Retail Sales numbers, lower than expected Empire State Manufacturing Survey data, and a decline in Business Inventories. Despite all the mediocre news, stocks are rallying across the board so far today. Ben Bernanke is speaking right now, so be careful (markets are beginning to pull back).
SPY is breaking out of a high base formation so far today on the daily chart. The TICK and TRIN are almost overly bullish, but showing strength nonetheless. The VIX, however, is only down about 1.5% today. Normally, the VIX should move 3x the inverse of the markets in order to confirm the move, but we are not seeing that so far today. All of the broader market indexes are participating in the rally today. The dollar (DXY, UUP) is down today, which is providing for support to the upside in equities. Also, it is interesting to note that bonds are increasing today (take a look at TLT). Bonds are normally a flight-to-safety type investment.
As for my personal trading account, I am setting up to go short again on the next down leg, so at the next reversal pattern I will add to short positions. I personally feel the need to re-evaluate my strategy. Expect a personal reflection post next week.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The SPY (S&P 500 tracking ETF) gapped down slightly this morning, filled the gap and ran higher into resistance at 110.40 and 110.5o, and reversed. SPY found some support at the 110 mark as expected (Support once broken becomes resistance), but broke down around 11:05. Right now, SPY is down about .5% at 109.6. Price is consolidating here intraday. We may see some continuation to the downside into the close. If SPY closes under 110, this could be the start of the next down leg as we saw a doji yesterday after a strong up leg, followed by a lower low and lower high on the next daily candle (today). Next support on spy is 109 followed by more significant support at 108 (on a breakout above 110, expect resistance at 110.5. After that, there is not much resistance until 120!).
The Financials (RIFIN, XLF) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are leading the markets lower today. The VIX is popping up about 5% right now which is bearish. The TICK and TRIN are rather neutral. It looks like today’s sell off was sparked by a worse than expected EIA Petroleum Status Report. Lookout for the Treasury Budget at 2 as that could be a market mover as well.
This morning I picked up more short positions in the face of the up move. Needless to say, that was a little more difficult to do than I had hoped it would be. Psychology plays a big role in stock trading.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. Check back this evening for your Post Market Analysis.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets finished up today after a choppy trading session. No economic news to speak of came out today. SPY finished at 110.15, and put in new highs for 2009 at 110.82. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) and Dow Jones (DIA) also put in new highs for 2009 today. The Financials (XLF) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are relatively weak on the daily chart and came no where close to new highs today. The Financials and Russell 2000, as well as the Nasdaq, are leading indexes. Before I get bullish on the markets again, I want to see the Financials and Russell 2000 showing more relative strength.
Across the board, in all of the major indexes I focus on, we have a doji after an up leg. I would not be surprised to see the markets roll over again at this point. When a chart shows a doji candle after a leg, often times a reversal follows. Keep in mind, if the markets roll over, we did put in a higher high on the S&P, Dow, and Russell 2000.
In my personal account I am fading the market at these levels. I will continue to increase my position in inverse ETFs in order to take advantage of the sell offs. The deterioration, panic selling, and fear in general we saw in the market just a few weeks ago tells me that the market wants to go lower. Volume has been increasing on sell offs and decreasing on up legs for at least a couple of months now.
I will probably be conducting another personal reflection of my trading performance with in the next couple of weeks, so look out for that. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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