The broader market indexes are chopping sideways today, which does not come as too much of a surprise. To be honest, there is nothing too special to report in regards to the major indexes so far today.
Check back this evening for your Post Market Analysis. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Big move up in the broader markets today. SPY gapped up and broke out above major resistance to put in new highs for 2009. DIA and QQQQ also put in new highs for the year today. The IWM and XLF are still lagging on the daily time frame as they are not even close to their highs for the year. The TICK and TRIN were very bullish today with a notable spike to the bearish side around 2:40 when Meredith Whitney came out and made some negative comments about financials. The VIX finished down by about 2%. If traders were more convinced by this rally, the VIX would have been down at least 4%.
From here I am looking for continuation to the upside, a consolidation pattern, or a reversal pattern. I know that covers most possibilities, but I am personally just waiting for the reversal pattern that signals a sell on the broader indexes. At that point, I will take advantage of the next down leg and sell out of all bearish positions. I need to re-think my strategy and I do not want to continue playing with leveraged ETFs much longer. I am going back to picking individual stocks.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Stocks are up big today on the back of weaker than expected Retail Sales numbers, lower than expected Empire State Manufacturing Survey data, and a decline in Business Inventories. Despite all the mediocre news, stocks are rallying across the board so far today. Ben Bernanke is speaking right now, so be careful (markets are beginning to pull back).
SPY is breaking out of a high base formation so far today on the daily chart. The TICK and TRIN are almost overly bullish, but showing strength nonetheless. The VIX, however, is only down about 1.5% today. Normally, the VIX should move 3x the inverse of the markets in order to confirm the move, but we are not seeing that so far today. All of the broader market indexes are participating in the rally today. The dollar (DXY, UUP) is down today, which is providing for support to the upside in equities. Also, it is interesting to note that bonds are increasing today (take a look at TLT). Bonds are normally a flight-to-safety type investment.
As for my personal trading account, I am setting up to go short again on the next down leg, so at the next reversal pattern I will add to short positions. I personally feel the need to re-evaluate my strategy. Expect a personal reflection post next week.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The SPY (S&P 500 tracking ETF) gapped down slightly this morning, filled the gap and ran higher into resistance at 110.40 and 110.5o, and reversed. SPY found some support at the 110 mark as expected (Support once broken becomes resistance), but broke down around 11:05. Right now, SPY is down about .5% at 109.6. Price is consolidating here intraday. We may see some continuation to the downside into the close. If SPY closes under 110, this could be the start of the next down leg as we saw a doji yesterday after a strong up leg, followed by a lower low and lower high on the next daily candle (today). Next support on spy is 109 followed by more significant support at 108 (on a breakout above 110, expect resistance at 110.5. After that, there is not much resistance until 120!).
The Financials (RIFIN, XLF) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are leading the markets lower today. The VIX is popping up about 5% right now which is bearish. The TICK and TRIN are rather neutral. It looks like today’s sell off was sparked by a worse than expected EIA Petroleum Status Report. Lookout for the Treasury Budget at 2 as that could be a market mover as well.
This morning I picked up more short positions in the face of the up move. Needless to say, that was a little more difficult to do than I had hoped it would be. Psychology plays a big role in stock trading.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. Check back this evening for your Post Market Analysis.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets finished up today after a choppy trading session. No economic news to speak of came out today. SPY finished at 110.15, and put in new highs for 2009 at 110.82. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) and Dow Jones (DIA) also put in new highs for 2009 today. The Financials (XLF) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are relatively weak on the daily chart and came no where close to new highs today. The Financials and Russell 2000, as well as the Nasdaq, are leading indexes. Before I get bullish on the markets again, I want to see the Financials and Russell 2000 showing more relative strength.
Across the board, in all of the major indexes I focus on, we have a doji after an up leg. I would not be surprised to see the markets roll over again at this point. When a chart shows a doji candle after a leg, often times a reversal follows. Keep in mind, if the markets roll over, we did put in a higher high on the S&P, Dow, and Russell 2000.
In my personal account I am fading the market at these levels. I will continue to increase my position in inverse ETFs in order to take advantage of the sell offs. The deterioration, panic selling, and fear in general we saw in the market just a few weeks ago tells me that the market wants to go lower. Volume has been increasing on sell offs and decreasing on up legs for at least a couple of months now.
I will probably be conducting another personal reflection of my trading performance with in the next couple of weeks, so look out for that. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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SPY is putting in some significant tests of the 110 mark today. SPY gapped up above 110 at the open, and chopped around the mark throughout the morning session ultimately breaking below it. Right now, SPY is around the same level it hovered at yesterday (109.9). The Financials are showing relative strength intraday, but are relatively weak on the daily chart.
The TICK is the only market internal that is really corroborating today’s action. The TRIN is bullish, and the VIX is pretty bearish (up about 3%).
This is gonna be an interesting day, so be sure to check back this evening for your Post Market Analysis. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com. Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Indecision in the markets today after a huge up move yesterday comes as no surprise. SPY (The S&P tracking ETF) finished unchanged to make a doji formation on the daily chart. The Financials (XLF) and Russells (IWM) showed significant relative weakness today, down .34% and .62% respectively. The Dow (DIA) and Nasdaq (QQQQ) were relatively strong today, both up about .25%.
The VIX did not really corroborate todays move as it finished down 1.34%. The TICK and TRIN did corroborate today’s action with some fidelity.
From here, I would not be surprised with a reversal or a pull back of some sort. 110 proved to be significant resistance for SPY. This was proven today as SPY failed to really challenge that resistance level. If SPY does pull back from here, that would be the beginning of a Double Top formation, which is a bearish reversal pattern. Keep in mind that the Double Top is not confirmed until SPY closes below 103.08. After such a strong up leg, a consolidation or pull back would be healthy for the markets in either the bull or bear case. Of course stocks can continue to run from here. Such a scenario would be unnatural, but considering the market we have been trading since March, it would not come as much of a surprise.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The SPY tested the 110 mark early in the session, getting as high as 109.93. As expected, 110 acted as major resistance and SPY has pulled back significantly from those highs. The Financials (XLF) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are leading the markets lower today showing relative weakness. The VIX is down .8%, the TRIN is definitively bearish, and the TICK is bearish as well.
I almost made a trade in EDZ this morning at 5.51, but price took off without me so my order did not fill. No big deal. Depending on how we finish the day, I may pick up some shorts after hours anyway, for a swing trade (swing trades last anywhere from 2 days to 2 months on average). My goal with the swing trades in inverse ETFs would be to capitalize on the next down leg.
If we close at this level, we will have a shooting star reversal pattern on SPY. That would be the beginning of a double top formation which is very bearish. Be careful going long today as things look a bit dicey so far to the long side. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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