The markets finished flat today after a relatively range bound trading session. The Financials (XLF) were the big winners today, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) also showed relative strength, which is a bullish sign. The market internals (TICK, TRIN, and VIX) all corroborated the indecisive action in stocks today.
SPY closed at support at the 50 day moving average and the 111 mark. 111.5 has proven to be significant resistance as SPY has been unable to break above it the past two sessions. On the daily chart of SPY we can see a bull flag break out and a solid run, but it was on low volume and appears to be slowing down now. Either way, it is extended at this point and I do not see a reason to enter long here. I will wait for a pull back, consolidation, or some other pattern to set up before picking up new positions.
It looks like my bullish call on UPRO on February 5 was dead right. If I did not get stopped out, I would have caught a healthy 17 point move. Right now am I analyzing why I got stopped out where I did and re-thinking the appropriateness of the stop loss I chose.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Bullish move in the markets today. The VIX did not confirm very well, but the TRIN and TRIN/Q were very strong. Volume was also light today. Commodities and earnings pushed stocks higher, while the dollar dropped.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! I am sorry for the rushed post, but I have a tight schedule right now. Please be patient as next Wednesday might be the next post. I am going to Toronto this weekend to compete in the 2010 Rotman International Trading Competition for Penn State. As soon as I get home I have 4 tests to make up, so I will be very busy this week. Thank you for understanding… Stay tuned!
Happy Trading,
Jason
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A lot of indecision and divergences in the markets today. The S&P 500 (SPY) had an inside trading day, showing no directional movement on the daily chart. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) was relatively strong, closing up .5% while the other indexes sold off .5%-1%. Gold (GLD) pulled back slightly and the dollar (UUP) broke above resistance at the 200 day moving average. The VIX popped ever so slightly, up .5%. The TRIN was very bearish today while the TRIN/Q remained bullish.
Based on earnings alone (so far they have been good after hours), I would expect the markets to trade higher tomorrow. However, things can turn on a dime as it is earnings season. Also, we have Jobless Claims and Productivity & Costs numbers coming out pre-market tomorrow. Always check earnings dates for stocks you are watching and/or trading. It is not prudent to hold positions or trade into earnings. Also, it is important to always define your risk and trade with a stop loss.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com!
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Interesting day in the markets as most major indexes were up about .5% mid-day, but all of them pulled back and finished in the red. The Financials (XLF) and Russell 2000 (IWM) were relative weak today. The VIX dropped about 3.5%. The TRIN, TICK, and TICK/Q all corroborated today’s action pretty well. However, the TRIN/Q stayed bullish all day. SPY is still in the process of consolidating at these levels. I would like to see a low base or a lower swing high going forward to support the bear case.
The FOMC meeting at 2:15 will probably be the highlight of the trading day tomorrow. Also watch the New Home Sales and EIA Petroleum Status Reports. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Not much happened between my Halftime Report and now. I honestly felt like I had nothing to say in this video. Stocks did finish higher, but for the most part, they did not move much between noon and now. Please refer to my Halftime Report today for more detailed analysis.
We have eleven trading days left for 2009 (four more this week, 3.5 next week, and 3.5 the week after). Things are looking pretty bullish to close out the year. Some of the bullish action can be attributed to fund managers loading up on stocks to look better. Clients will want to see their funds invested after hearing so much good news… January 2010 will be an interesting month. My guess right now is that we will remain strong for 2009 and some, if not all, of January 2010. After that, I would not be surprised if the markets start a strong pull back. That’s just a guess, and I honestly do not care either way. As I have said before, I am a trader. I can theoretically make money in any market (bull or bear).
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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