A lot of indecision and divergences in the markets today. The S&P 500 (SPY) had an inside trading day, showing no directional movement on the daily chart. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) was relatively strong, closing up .5% while the other indexes sold off .5%-1%. Gold (GLD) pulled back slightly and the dollar (UUP) broke above resistance at the 200 day moving average. The VIX popped ever so slightly, up .5%. The TRIN was very bearish today while the TRIN/Q remained bullish.
Based on earnings alone (so far they have been good after hours), I would expect the markets to trade higher tomorrow. However, things can turn on a dime as it is earnings season. Also, we have Jobless Claims and Productivity & Costs numbers coming out pre-market tomorrow. Always check earnings dates for stocks you are watching and/or trading. It is not prudent to hold positions or trade into earnings. Also, it is important to always define your risk and trade with a stop loss.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com!
Happy Trading,
Jason
Tweet This Post
The markets popped today, putting a temporary end to the recent sell off. All of the major indexes have put in a swing low now, however, the Nasdaq (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are relatively weak to the S&P 500 (SPY), Financials (XLF), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) on the daily time frame. If the bulls want any hope of continuing the March 2009 rally past March 2010, the next swing high better not be lower than the last. That would be bearish to see and would provide more confirmation for the markets rolling over here.
The dollar (UUP) appeared to be breaking above a resistance line as well as the 200 day moving average on Friday, but has pulled back under the resistance this week, therefore registering it a failed break out. Gold (GLD) has marked an equal swing low to the last swing low and may form a double bottom formation here. It is not a confirmed double bottom yet, on gold, and there is a bit of resistance to fight through on the upside. If gold continues to rise and the dollar continues to drop, that will help push stocks higher.
The VIX dropped 5% today, which is more than enough to confirm the 1% pop in the general markets. The TRIN and TRIN/Q were both very bullish today. The TICK and TICK/Q corroborated the move nicely.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately! Also, be sure to check earnings dates for stocks you are trading and/or watching. It is prudent not to hold over earnings. Finally, it is a good idea to regularly check the Bloomberg Economic Calendar and sites like Yahoo finance so that you know the major headlines that may move the markets.
Happy Trading,
Jason
Tweet This Post
The major indexes rose more than 1% today. Volume was average, which certainly takes away from the move. The VIX dropped more than 8% today, which is pretty significant. A 3-4% drop in the VIX would have been enough confirmation for today. The TRIN was certainly bullish and the TRIN/Q was almost overly bullish, hovering around .4 all day. The TICK and TICK/Q corroborated the sideways chop that we saw for most of the session.
Gold (GLD) spiked up 2.26% today which is good for the markets. Also, the dollar (UUP) dropped .43% and that also helped push stocks higher today.
The S&P 500 (SPY) could be marking a swing low here, but it is certainly not confirmed yet. A break above 110 would be strong confirmation of a swing low here. Otherwise, the daily chart is still showing the makings of a weak low base consolidation.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
Tweet This Post
The markets are looking extremely bearish. The most important news today is the fact that GDP and Consumer Sentiment reports both came out better than expected, and the markets sold off. Remember, how the market reacts to the news is more important than the news itself. If you will recall, back in March and April of 2009, the market responded to negative news with buying pressure. Right now, the markets are responding to positive news with selling pressure.
The S&P 500 (SPY) broke down out of a rising wedge on the daily chart and formed a high base. Today (and yesterday), SPY broke down out of the high base formation. All of this selling pressure occurred with increasing volume. That is significant confirmation of the bearish formations. Gold (GLD) has put in a short term top and the dollar (UUP) just broke out of a falling wedge and today broke above the 200 day moving average. Recently, the correlation has been that when the markets are up, gold is up and the dollar is down. These are all indicating bearish activity and probably more selling pressure to come.
The Nasdaq (QQQQ) was the leader to the downside today, followed by the Russell 2000 (IWM). These are leading indexes and they are adding to the selling pressure. The VIX popped about 3.75% today and tested the 25 mark. The TRIN, TRIN/Q, TICK, and TICK/Q each corroborated the moves in their respective indexes nicely today.
This is the worst pull back we have seen in a very long time. Unlike the head and shoulders break down we saw in July 2009, this sell off is being confirmed by extreme increases in volume. This is serious folks. I always say it, but I hope my repetition has not detracted from its value… Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately! Capital preservation is a traders number one priority.
Have a great weekend. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com!
Happy Trading,
Jason
Tweet This Post
Yesterday I drew attention to the fact that the markets showed strength into the close and I predicted that we would see a bounce today. I was right.
Now that I have that out of the way, let’s look at the markets. Our leading indexes (Nasdaq, Financials, and Russell 2000) were the strongest today which is nice to see. The market internals showed some weakness early in the session, but turned around and spent most of the day in bullish territory. Gold (GLD) climbed almost a full percent today, and the Dollar (UUP) fell slightly.
The daily chart of SPY looked like it was pulling back yesterday, but today’s action completely stopped the down leg. Do not count the bulls out. The markets still want to go a little higher. There is major resistance coming up around 120 on SPY. I would not be surprised if we reach that point and begin to turn around. We will see what happens.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. Capital preservation comes before profits… ALWAYS.
Happy Trading,
Jason
Tweet This Post
Please accept my apologies for not updating Swing-High in a while. I was on winter break from school and broke my wrist two weeks ago. Things have been pretty hectic (and painful) these last couple of weeks. Thanks for being patient with me.
Today marks the start of a new semester here at school and therefore a new schedule. It looks like I will no longer be able to produce the Halftime Report. I do expect to bring you the Post Market Analysis every day and possibly the Weekend Review.
As for the markets today, things were rather calm. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) showed some weakness today along with weakness in the Dollar (UUP). Gold (GLD) popped nicely today. Earnings season kicks off with Alcoa (AA) today, so be sure to check that out. Typing with one hand is slow and my wrist hurts quite a bit, so for today I will leave it at that. Thank you for understanding.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
Tweet This Post
The markets are mixed today on the back of some mixed economic data. The Russell 2000 (IWM) is the winner so far today, up .5%. Meanwhile, the Financials (XLF) are the real loser, down over 1%. The Nasdaq (QQQQ), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), and the S&P 500 (SPY) are flat to lower for the most part. Intraday, SPY tried to break out of its bull flag formation, but has failed. The TRIN and TRIN/Q continue to be divergent. The VIX is down ever so slightly. Gold (GLD) is down .33% and the dollar (UUP) is up .8%, so that should provide for some selling pressure in equities. If stocks hold up today, even if they close flat, that will be bullish.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
Tweet This Post
For the most part, stocks finished strong today. If you recall, I made note of a few bullish indicators in my Halftime Report that could potentially boost the markets. The VIX bled out today, down 4.35%. The TRIN actually finished in the neutral range, but the TRIN/Q was undeniably bullish. The TICK corroborated the intraday movement in stocks nicely. The S&P 500 (SPX , SPY) is still holding up in the broad high base formation that it has been in for the past month. This is a bullish sign; however, it is crucial to see which direction the formation resolves to. In today’s video I took a brief look at a few of the leaders (AAPL, RIMM, and GS) for the session.
Please provide me with feedback! I want to hear what you think about Swing-High.com! Any comments or suggestions are welcome. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
Tweet This Post
Loading ...