Hello Traders! I am glad to be back after months of sitting on my hands. I am still sitting on them, but I am here to review the markets while I wait. While the market figures out which direction it wants to go, I be here trying to predict its decision. Stay with me… things could get very interesting again in the markets, perhaps soon.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Stocks are rising today on better news out of Greece. Most of the major indexes are up about 1% so far. The VIX is down over 4.5%. The TRIN is neutral, which means stocks can break in either direction with relative ease. The TICK is bullish.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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Stocks rallied across the board today. The VIX only dropped about 2%, while the major indexes rose by 1% or more. I would have liked to see the VIX down at least 3% today in order to confirm the move in the broad market. The TRIN and TRIN/Q were both in bullish territory (under .8), indicating that more volume was flowing into stocks on the rise rather than stocks on the decline. The TICK and TICK/Q, though mostly used by day traders, corroborated the intraday actions nicely.
The S&P 500 (SPY) now has a confirmed swing low in place and a potential reversal pattern setting up on the daily chart. Today’s candle is a doji at the top of an up leg which could be a reversal pending a close below today’s lows at the end of tomorrow’s trading session. The upper shadow of today’s candle tagged 108 and the top of the downward channel which acted as strong resistance, sending prices back down. In order to continue being bullish, SPY needs to break above the upper line of the channel and the 108 mark. Otherwise, we may see a lower swing high and continuation to the downside.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets sold off on light volume today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), Russell 2000 (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Nasdaq (QQQQ) all showed relative weakness to the S&P 500 (SPY) today. The VIX only rose 1.5%, which is not really enough to confirm the move lower. The TRIN and TRIN/Q both finished the day in bearish territory, indicating more volume flowing into stocks on the decline than stocks on the rise. That is a bearish sign. The TICK and TICK/Q were fairly neutral with some bearish bias, especially into the close.
On the daily chart of SPY we made a higher high and a higher low today, which is technically bullish, but in reality, today’s move was a little more bearish than bullish. We really need to see a close higher than today’s highs in order to mark a swing low here.
There are a bunch of potentially market moving earnings reports coming out before tomorrow’s trading session, so keep your eye out for any big surprises there. There are also some minor economic reports coming out tomorrow, but they are not heavy hitters. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are going to be big days in terms of economic reports that have the potential to really move the markets. Keep your eye on the economic calender as well as earnings dates for particular stocks you might be trading/watching.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The markets popped today, putting a temporary end to the recent sell off. All of the major indexes have put in a swing low now, however, the Nasdaq (QQQQ) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are relatively weak to the S&P 500 (SPY), Financials (XLF), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) on the daily time frame. If the bulls want any hope of continuing the March 2009 rally past March 2010, the next swing high better not be lower than the last. That would be bearish to see and would provide more confirmation for the markets rolling over here.
The dollar (UUP) appeared to be breaking above a resistance line as well as the 200 day moving average on Friday, but has pulled back under the resistance this week, therefore registering it a failed break out. Gold (GLD) has marked an equal swing low to the last swing low and may form a double bottom formation here. It is not a confirmed double bottom yet, on gold, and there is a bit of resistance to fight through on the upside. If gold continues to rise and the dollar continues to drop, that will help push stocks higher.
The VIX dropped 5% today, which is more than enough to confirm the 1% pop in the general markets. The TRIN and TRIN/Q were both very bullish today. The TICK and TICK/Q corroborated the move nicely.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately! Also, be sure to check earnings dates for stocks you are trading and/or watching. It is prudent not to hold over earnings. Finally, it is a good idea to regularly check the Bloomberg Economic Calendar and sites like Yahoo finance so that you know the major headlines that may move the markets.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The major indexes rose more than 1% today. Volume was average, which certainly takes away from the move. The VIX dropped more than 8% today, which is pretty significant. A 3-4% drop in the VIX would have been enough confirmation for today. The TRIN was certainly bullish and the TRIN/Q was almost overly bullish, hovering around .4 all day. The TICK and TICK/Q corroborated the sideways chop that we saw for most of the session.
Gold (GLD) spiked up 2.26% today which is good for the markets. Also, the dollar (UUP) dropped .43% and that also helped push stocks higher today.
The S&P 500 (SPY) could be marking a swing low here, but it is certainly not confirmed yet. A break above 110 would be strong confirmation of a swing low here. Otherwise, the daily chart is still showing the makings of a weak low base consolidation.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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The FOMC Minutes moved the markets higher today. Today was a fairly common Fed announcement day as the markets chopped sideways on low volume until 2:15, at which time volume, volatility, and in this case prices picked up into the close. If you caught yesterday’s Post Market Analysis, I warned everyone to look out for this announcement.
The S&P 500 (SPY) is still consolidating in a low base formation, trading under 110 and above 109 for the most part today (with the exception of the brief run down to 108.3 around 2:15). The TICK, TICK/Q, TRIN, and TRIN/Q corroborated today’s action nicely. Keep in mind that the TICK/Q and TRIN/Q correspond with the Nasdaq. I forgot to mention the VIX in my video, but it dropped 5.75% today, holding up above 23. The Financials (XLF) and Russell 2000 (IWM) were clearly the strongest of the five major sectors I cover on this site. That is certainly bullish, but on the daily charts, things still look pretty weak across the board. If SPY does put in a swing low here, I expect a lower swing high around 112 or 111. If SPY consolidates here and breaks down past 108, the next support areas are 105 and 103.7.
I want to briefly mention AAPL here. It looked like AAPL was going to have a classic “buy on the rumor, sell on the news” type day today with the release of the iPad (terrible name by the way). However, it rallied back and closed higher for the session. Right not it is not showing a buy signal on the daily chart. I would like to see it continue to consolidate here, putting in a high base or ascending triangle. From there, a break above 115.55 on convincing volume would be a buy. If not, playing a pull back buy could be an option in the future.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately, especially on days like today and as volatility is increasing.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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We have a mixture of bullish and bearish signals today. SPY broke down out of the rising wedge formation on the daily chart. However, SPY also held up in the high base formation on the daily chart. Volume was relatively strong today, so on a sell off, that is an ominous sign. The VIX popped up over 6%, but closed well off of its highs and well under 20. The TICK and TRIN both corroborated today’s action well.
Check your Bloomberg Economic Calender for reports that could potentially move the markets tomorrow. Also, check out Chart Game if you get the chance. It’s a fantastic practice tool. Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.
Happy Trading,
Jason
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