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Post Market Analysis, Wednesday February 24

Jason B Gordon — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 21:12:00 +0000

After a weekend in Toronto, I am struggling to catch up with everything. Please be patient with me as daily updates are becoming more and more difficult to produce. I may consider updating once a week instead, but that thought just came to mind so I cannot say for sure just yet.

As for the markets today, they certainly showed strength. The VIX dropped 5% and the TICK and TRIN corroborated the move higher. The S&P 500 put in an inside trading day today and looks like it will begin chopping sideways for some time.

Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.

Happy Trading,

Jason

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Post Market Analysis, Monday February 22

Jason B Gordon — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 21:33:00 +0000

The markets finished flat today after a relatively range bound trading session. The Financials (XLF) were the big winners today, and the Russell 2000 (IWM) also showed relative strength, which is a bullish sign. The market internals (TICK, TRIN, and VIX) all corroborated the indecisive action in stocks today.

SPY closed at support at the 50 day moving average and the 111 mark. 111.5 has proven to be significant resistance as SPY has been unable to break above it the past two sessions. On the daily chart of SPY we can see a bull flag break out and a solid run, but it was on low volume and appears to be slowing down now. Either way, it is extended at this point and I do not see a reason to enter long here. I will wait for a pull back, consolidation, or some other pattern to set up before picking up new positions.

It looks like my bullish call on UPRO on February 5 was dead right. If I did not get stopped out, I would have caught a healthy 17 point move. Right now am I analyzing why I got stopped out where I did and re-thinking the appropriateness of the stop loss I chose.

Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.

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Happy Trading,

Jason

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Post Market Analysis, Tuesday February 16

Jason B Gordon — Tue, 16 Feb 2010 21:25:55 +0000

Bullish move in the markets today. The VIX did not confirm very well, but the TRIN and TRIN/Q were very strong. Volume was also light today. Commodities and earnings pushed stocks higher, while the dollar dropped.

Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! I am sorry for the rushed post, but I have a tight schedule right now. Please be patient as next Wednesday might be the next post. I am going to Toronto this weekend to compete in the 2010 Rotman International Trading Competition for Penn State. As soon as I get home I have 4 tests to make up, so I will be very busy this week. Thank you for understanding… Stay tuned!

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Happy Trading,

Jason

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Post Market Analysis, Friday February 12

Jason B Gordon — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 21:18:26 +0000

The markets gapped down this morning and spent much of the day recovering. Our support/resistance lines drawn in at 107.2 and 108 on SPY worked very nicely today. Ultimately, we have an inside trading day on SPY and a relatively weak breakout of the bull flag formation on the daily chart. The VIX did drop today which adds some validity to the rally. The TRIN was bearish while the TRIN/Q read bullish. The TICK and TICK/Q both corroborated today’s action. Note the Russell 2000 (IWM) showed relative strength today.

Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.

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Happy Trading,

Jason

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Post Market Analysis, Wednesday February 10

Jason B Gordon — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 21:26:29 +0000

The broad market indexes finished the day with mixed results. The S&P 500 (SPY), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), and Nasdaq (QQQQ) all finished lower by about .2%. The Financials (XLF) showed significant relative strength, closing up 1%. The Russell 2000 (IWM) finished fractionally higher to flat.

The market internals gave mixed readings, which is expected on a sideways day. The TRIN was bearish today. The TRIN/Q was mostly bullish. The TICK and TICK/Q corroborated the intraday action. Finally, the VIX dropped nearly 3%, but is holding up over 25.

On the daily chart of SPY we have a lower high and a lower low. Today’s candle is also a doji. The upper shaddow of today’s candle hit resistance at the upper trendline of the down channel. From here I expect a lower swing low, but none of the signals I am seeing are terribly decisive. Volume was also relatively normal today.

Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.

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Happy Trading,

Jason

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Post Market Analysis, Tuesday February 9

Jason B Gordon — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 21:36:38 +0000

Stocks rallied across the board today. The VIX only dropped about 2%, while the major indexes rose by 1% or more. I would have liked to see the VIX down at least 3% today in order to confirm the move in the broad market. The TRIN and TRIN/Q were both in bullish territory (under .8), indicating that more volume was flowing into stocks on the rise rather than stocks on the decline. The TICK and TICK/Q, though mostly used by day traders, corroborated the intraday actions nicely.

The S&P 500 (SPY) now has a confirmed swing low in place and a potential reversal pattern setting up on the daily chart. Today’s candle is a doji at the top of an up leg which could be a reversal pending a close below today’s lows at the end of tomorrow’s trading session. The upper shadow of today’s candle tagged 108 and the top of the downward channel which acted as strong resistance, sending prices back down. In order to continue being bullish, SPY needs to break above the upper line of the channel and the 108 mark. Otherwise, we may see a lower swing high and continuation to the downside.

Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.

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Happy Trading,

Jason

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Post Market Analysis, Monday February 8

Jason B Gordon — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 21:36:16 +0000

The markets sold off on light volume today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA), Russell 2000 (IWM), Financials (XLF), and Nasdaq (QQQQ) all showed relative weakness to the S&P 500 (SPY) today. The VIX only rose 1.5%, which is not really enough to confirm the move lower. The TRIN and TRIN/Q both finished the day in bearish territory, indicating more volume flowing into stocks on the decline than stocks on the rise. That is a bearish sign. The TICK and TICK/Q were fairly neutral with some bearish bias, especially into the close.

On the daily chart of SPY we made a higher high and a higher low today, which is technically bullish, but in reality, today’s move was a little more bearish than bullish. We really need to see a close higher than today’s highs in order to mark a swing low here.

There are a bunch of potentially market moving earnings reports coming out before tomorrow’s trading session, so keep your eye out for any big surprises there. There are also some minor economic reports coming out tomorrow, but they are not heavy hitters. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are going to be big days in terms of economic reports that have the potential to really move the markets. Keep your eye on the economic calender as well as earnings dates for particular stocks you might be trading/watching.

Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.

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Happy Trading,

Jason

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Post Market Analysis, Friday February 5, 2010: Stength Into the Close… Reversal?

Jason B Gordon — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 21:32:27 +0000

The markets were down hard today, but reversed in the last hour and rallied harder into the close. Volume stepped up and confirmed the move as well; 100 million more shares of SPY traded today than yesterday. The VIX, TRIN, TRIN/Q, TICK, and TICK/Q all gave strong confirmation of a reversal here. On the daily chart of SPY, we have a thrusting hammer on strong volume after a down leg. I am looking for a small bounce here. If we get a lower swing high, then the bear trend will be strengthened.

Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately.

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Happy Trading,

Jason

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Post Market Analysis, Thursday February 4: Extremely Bearish

Jason B Gordon — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 22:32:27 +0000

The markets sold off HUGE today, closing on the lows. Volume was very strong, which adds serious conviction to the sell off. The TRIN was almost overly bearish, but the TRIN/Q gave a healthy bearish reading. The VIX popped nearly 21% today, closing well above 25. Gold (GLD) sold off about 4% and the dollar rose .65%.

The S&P 500 (SPY) broke down below key support at 109, 108, and 107.2… in one swift move. If SPY stays under 107.2, it’s game on for the bears. The next key support is going to be 105 and 103.7. There is a lot of room to the downside now and a lot of resistance to fight through on the way back up.

Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. As a trader, you should be able to make money in either direction. Therefore, a strong sell off like this should not scare you (at least on a trading level); instead, you should be happy to see so much movement. If you do not know how to short or are uncomfortable shorting, then move into cash or buy some short term government securities. Please do not hold a loser. Right now, most stocks are looking like losers.

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Happy Trading,

Jason

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Post Market Analysis, Wednesday February 3

Jason B Gordon — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 21:35:45 +0000

A lot of indecision and divergences in the markets today. The S&P 500 (SPY) had an inside trading day, showing no directional movement on the daily chart. The Nasdaq (QQQQ) was relatively strong, closing up .5% while the other indexes sold off .5%-1%. Gold (GLD) pulled back slightly and the dollar (UUP) broke above resistance at the 200 day moving average. The VIX popped ever so slightly, up .5%. The TRIN was very bearish today while the TRIN/Q remained bullish.

Based on earnings alone (so far they have been good after hours), I would expect the markets to trade higher tomorrow. However, things can turn on a dime as it is earnings season. Also, we have Jobless Claims and Productivity & Costs numbers coming out pre-market tomorrow. Always check earnings dates for stocks you are watching and/or trading. It is not prudent to hold positions or trade into earnings. Also, it is important to always define your risk and trade with a stop loss.

Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com!

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Happy Trading,

Jason

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