Halftime Report, Friday The Thirteenth
Some scary action in the markets today if you’re a bear. We had a FOBO (Fake Out Break Out) to the downside this morning on worse than expected economic reports. International Trade and Consumer Sentiment disappointed analysts. We broke down on SPY and tagged yesterday’s low. SPY formed a Tweezers Bottom and shot north from there. The Financials (XLF) and Russell 2000 (IWM) are showing relative weakness still, which provides little faith for this intraday rally. It looks like the Financials and Russell 2000 will be the indexes that lead the markets lower from here.
I expect SPY to close within the 109 to 110 range today. A 50% retracement of yesterday’s sell off is not surprising. Some would even call that a sympathy bounce. If SPY closes above 110, that would be very bullish going into Monday. Below 109 would be bearish as it is continuation to the downside and would confirm the beginning of a down leg.
Thanks for being a part of Swing-High.com! Always trade with a stop loss and manage your risk appropriately. Check back this weekend for your Weekend Review.
Happy Trading,
Jason
P.S. Sorry for not doing the Post Market Analysis yesterday. I was competing in a trading competition through the Smeal College of Business here at Penn State. I am not sure how I did yet, but I will let you know when I find out.
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Thanks for your posts, I am total newbie in tech analysis and find your page very useful. Go on like this!!! =)
You are certainly welcome! Glad to hear that I am helping.
I encourage you to keep doing your homework. Study stocks as much as you can. Also, do not get all of your info from one site. Use sites like FINVIZ, Bloomberg, and Investopedia to name a few.
Once you start dreaming about stocks, you will know you are close to understanding them!
I think I do pretty well in stock picking
I have access to Bloomberg terminal and numerous investment bank research. but tech analysis is what I really miss =) Last week I quit all my long positions and shorted FAS, was searching for tech analysis on RIFIN and found your page. what do you think of the next week?
It’s a tough call at this point. Technically, SPY, QQQQ, and DIA are starting bullish patterns that could be confirmed, strengthened, or nullified this week. At the same time, the Russells and Financials are relatively weak, and the markets cannot continue higher without the support of those two leading indexes.
The best way to use Swing-High.com, and I do not say this enough at the moment, is to compare my analysis of the indexes to individual stocks you might have your eye on. This way, you can take note of what I see and whether or not the stocks on your watch list are relatively strong or weak.
You say you are a good stock picker. If you don’t mind me asking, how do you pick your stocks? Do you screen for certain criteria? Do you look for consumer trends and then find stocks that are related? Do you only care about technical or fundamental set ups? I ask these questions only for the sake of knowledge. Personally, I screen for a mix of fundamental and technical criteria to pick my stocks.
Basically I buy stocks with low p/b (combination with negative ev would be perfect) which insiders are buying – i had several that doubled in a very short time – NNBR, CMRG, VVTV, QLTI, TRMA, TA, TWMC. I started to buy financials in March but pretty soon sold out everything and then saw some of them rising tenfold =) but now I closed all longs, because I dont believe it will go further without major correction. Let’s check your last post =)
Your blog keeps getting better and better! Your older articles are not as good as newer ones you have a lot more creativity and originality now keep it up!